Horse Racing Tips: Best Newcastle Bets with Shayne O’Cass

A Brad Widdup-trained mare put the writing on the wall for her first win in 2022 with an outstanding return at the Beaumont circuit. BEST BETS, DOOR MAIL

Daily Telegraph analyst Shayne O’Cass gives his best bets and rules every race for Newcastle.

The Form: Complete the NSW Racing Thoroughbred form, including video replays and everything you need to know about each horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

WYONG

BEST GUESS

Race 7, #7: TYCOON HALLIE

Add her name to the line of Brad Widdup trained mares who are honest, reliable and talented at the same time. Placed to win.

NEXT BEST

Race 2, No.7: ADULT

She only had to walk in one of her two tests and she would have to win what appears to be a meager affair on paper.

VALUE BET

Race 3, No.7: HEAVENLY PROPHET

Anticipating the natural improvement of this Team Hawkes-trained filly from their former Guineas winner, Divine Prophet.

BEST EXOTIC

Quinella Race 3. No.7 and 9

QUADDIA

Race 4: 1,3,6,8

Race 5: 2,4.9

Race 6: 1.4

Race 7: 3.7,8

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Jay Ford has four rides in Wyong and if they all run he could get enough points to give the TAB Jockeys Challenge a glowing shot.

THE INNER MAIL FOR NEWCASTLE

race 1

Berry Berry Good is quite typical of his father Capitalist, at least in terms of looks. The Jean Dubois-trained gelding was unwanted at debut ($61 to $81) 12 days ago in a deep virgin in Canterbury and never really seemed likely. That said, this is a million times easier and if he can show the speed he did in his test he could be in the finish. November Rhythm put in a good performance in debut in a 1000m Canberra maiden. Got the draw they wanted. Not so Barney Rabble, but 900 meters around here are hardly any panic stations.

Effort: Berry Berry Good to win, quinella 5.7

race 2

Adulting was sidelined by injury after making her debut 12 months and two weeks ago. She was $3.50 in town that day, which kind of says how she was doing. Fast forward to the present and again her trials, two of them, were super encouraging. Gorshin has a pretty disappointing track record at first glance, but there may be just that little bit more to him than meets the eye. Tuncurry mare Smart Sophia was a real eye-catcher at her first start in that maiden at Port Macquarie on New Years Day.

Effort: grow up to win

race 3

The Heavenly Prophet had tried quite a bit before making her debut in a girl from Gosford on December 29th, where she was unlucky to run into Twilight Affair. This Team Hawkes trained filly would never be a real threat, but it was only her first run and given her breeding achievements among other things, she was/will always improve as time goes by. Ditto and more for Great Mystery. She is a hundred times better than her current resume suggests. She could win this and go to better races this time. Blue Jager, the daughter of VRC Oaks winner Brazilian Pulse, now wants 1400m on a big track.

Effort: Heavenly Prophet each way, Great Mystery each way, quinella 7.9 box trifecta 1.5,7,9

race 4

Big Short is a Waller/Ingham gelding and one and a half of the players of that combination, Wine Bush and Wine Tales. For a horse that started $31 and $10 respectively on his last two starts, you should credit him for running well above market expectations. If he runs the same track/distance to his debut, he will indeed get very close. I’m not sure if one or both stable mates Celtic Harp and/or Paternal will make it to the race, but they clearly have opportunities. In the medium to long term, the Savabeel gelding Paternal is arguably the best horse of this race.

Effort: Big Short to win, quinella 3,8

race 5

Don’tforgetmonica is nominated for the Queen of the Turf at Port Macquarie on Friday and considering it’s worth $65,000 compared to $35,000 here, you’d think they’d be waiting a few days. Rival trainers will certainly hope so. Let’s assume she’s scratched; it would make The Crimson Idol’s job considerably easier. Don’t be too quick to fire her because of the ‘077’ next to her name, she was a Randwick winner for the ‘0’ and those two were seventh in town and not bad at all. Snowden Racing / Triple Crown mare Windsweep has put in some pretty good quality races this time around.

Effort: Don’t forget monica to win or, if scratched, The Crimson Idol in any direction

race 6

Mihocek is an honest and reliable horse and above all a fit horse. If so, he has to walk 1500 meters. The only minor negative about him is that he pulled 9 out of 9 runners and being a forward horse he will need a few things to work for him in the first furlong. Furthermore, he looks “obvious” without being moral. Toomai has won twice since joining the Kris Lees stable. She is a Newcastle winner and a final starting winner so is entitled to some respect here, especially from gate 3 and the claim for a very good apprentice jockey in Bailey Wheeler. Mydeel is a lightly played and progressive son of Dundeel.

Effort: Mihocek wins

race 7

Tycoon Hallie was $4.20 in $3.30 when she resumed at the Beaumont circuit on Boxing Day and although she was beat, you could hardly find fault with the run. The winner, Nikau, goes well and Widdup’s mare kept chasing wildly until the very end. The step to 1500m on this larger track is now a bull’s eye for her. Lennon ran a good race at Warwick Farm two weeks ago. He was $61 in $41 at one point and while no one collected, you should be following him up here considering how well he ran (late) in a 1200m midweek. Nicochet wins are few but you know he is capable in his day.

Effort: Tycoon Hallie wins

Originally published as Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Newcastle

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