It’s a busy weekend of Premier League football and Jones Knows is here to provide the latest insights, predictions and betting angles on the action.
Arsenal vs Burnley, Sunday 2 p.m.
If Ben White, Gabriel and Aaron Ramsdale are fit to play I will support Arsenal to win without giving in. It’s a simple strategy, but one that has led to a lot of gains this season.
Since that axis was formed, Arsenal have not conceded a goal before the 38th minute in 18 games. It provides Mikel Arteta with a fantastic platform to work from and the results are going as they go. The home defeat to Manchester City was their first loss in 12 home games in all competitions and the Arteta boys certainly deserved more than they got.
Arsenal’s record under Arteta against relegation-threatened teams should also inspire a lot of confidence in a comfortable win without giving in. The Gunners defeated all relegated teams away from home without conceding last season to an aggregate score of 8-0 and have already knocked out Burnley, Newcastle, Watford and Norwich (twice) while keeping a clean sheet this season. Some will argue Burnley will be fresher than the Gunners but that’s the lack of firepower within Sean Dyche’s ranks – Maxwell Cornet has left AFCON and Chris Wood has been sold – Arsenal probably won’t need to be at maximum capacity to get the to get loot.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
BET ANGLE: Arsenal win to nil (6/5 with Sky Bet)
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Liverpool won’t be the only team at Selhurst Park to miss crucial attackers.
Palace is without Wilfried Zaha and while their decline in terms of overall performance isn’t as drastic as Liverpool’s without Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane, it certainly has an effect on Palace’s ability to win corners. That’s my angle for this game.
Jordan Ayew and Zaha provide Palace with plenty of direct dribbles that take them to the byline to force corners. Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze are two talents, but both are completely different types of players who like to cut inside and get into central positions. Without Ayew – who is back from AFCON but unlikely to start – and Zaha, Palace failed to win a corner at Brighton – and as Palace also doesn’t play with any aggressive width from their fullbacks, their number of corners is likely to increase as well. be very low in this game. Liverpool are only conceding an average of 3.1 corners per 90 minutes – the joint best record together with Manchester City.
Without Salah and Mane, it could take longer than usual for Liverpool to get through teams so that the pressure on the Palace goal can be more sustained, increasing the chances of Liverpool corners. Sky Bet have set the handicap corner at four, meaning Liverpool must win five or more corners than Palace to accept the 11/8 bet. That seems fair enough to me.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
ANGLE BET: Liverpool (-4.0) on the corner handicap (11/8 with Sky Bet)
Leicester vs Brighton, Sunday 2pm
Two good football teams will probably cancel each other out here. The draw is a serious runner on 11/5 with Sky Bet.
After their 1-1 draw at Crystal Palace, where they created enough to win three games, Brighton’s tag as the king of underperforming their expected goals was again accurate. They have won the xG battle in five of their last six matches, but have only won two of those matches. All the stats suggest there is a range of positive results ahead, but we’ve been here so many times with Brighton.
Against such a dangerous attacking team like Leicester, who have scored 29 goals in their last 12 games and currently own arguably the best player in the Premier League in James Maddison, Brighton is easy to fool for the trophies .
Leicester have a lead in attack, but Brighton are extremely organized in the back. I would expect Graham Potter’s team to land in some great positions with the King Power, but not make the most of it. Withdraw the draw.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
BET ANGLE: Back the draw (13/5 with Sky Bet)
Chelsea vs Tottenham, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Thomas Tuchel has been a fantastic addition to the Premier League: captivating, a deep thinker and above all a master of team organizing. However, his deflection technique to blame Chelsea’s current slump in attacking areas on fatigue is starting to get a little tiresome. I haven’t enjoyed watching Chelsea’s attack process in two months and if you read between the lines Tuchel’s recent comments he would agree.
In their last 11 Premier League games, Chelsea have averaged just 1.5 expected goals per 90 minutes – a relatively strong figure, but not for a team expected to challenge Manchester City and Liverpool, who both average 2.1 per 90 get minutes. Opportunities created by open play are also badly downplayed for Chelsea – in those 11 games, Chelsea had just 8.4 open play shots per 90 minutes, which is the 11th best of any team in the Premier League. Spurs sit together with Manchester City (13.4).
It’s that lack of fluidity in forward areas that makes Tuchel’s side very vulnerable on 8/13 with Sky Bet. Chelsea have won just four of their last 13 Premier League games, losing 20 points in that time. And against a fluid attacking opponent like Tottenham, who have averaged 2.5 expected goals per 90 minutes over the last seven games and have been dangerous from all sides in their astonishing 3-2 success at Leicester on Wednesday, Chelsea will simply have to face off. the prices.
Many of you will be yelling at me at this point to point out that Chelsea have only lost one of their last 31 league games at home to Spurs, won 20 and won quite comfortably 3-0 in the two-legged Carabao Cup semi-final. . Still, the Spurs shot themselves in the foot in the cup, making basic mistakes to get Chelsea on their way and most importantly we can get 9/2 here on an away win. That’s an award that is just begging to be picked up for a team that carries such a threat in the future and is led by arguably the best striker in world football. With Chelsea’s defense still among the best in the Premier League and the Spurs most unlikely to take off, I’m glad I’m greedy and raised the price by backing Antonio Conte’s men to score one goal. win at 1-7.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
MATCH: Tottenham win by one goal (7/1 with Sky Bet)