Fantasy Basketball Picks: Top DraftKings NBA DFS Targets for Mavericks vs. Warriors Showdown on May 22

the Dallas Mavericks will look to bounce back after dropping the first two games of the Western Conference Finals to the Golden State Warriors† Some good old fashion home cooking should do wonders for them. In these playoffs, they have had the best defensive rating at home, holding Utah to 99, 104 and 77 points while limiting Phoenix to 94, 101 and 86 points. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Mavericks favored by 2.5 points, with the total at 219.

Let’s go over the fantasy outlook for the game for Showdown contests on DraftKings


Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $600K Shootaround [$150K to 1st] (GSW vs DAL)


Captain’s Picks

Luka Doncic ($20,400) – The Warriors held Doncic to 6-for-18 shooting for 20 points and 34.8 DKFP in Game 1. He had scored at least 50 DKFP in every game in the playoffs with three over 60 and a high of 75, so a bounce-back game was to be expected. That said, the Warriors had the second-best defensive rating during the regular season, so there was merit to fading him for Game 2 due to the high price tag. Well, the Mavericks made adjustments in Game 2 by incorporating more isolation instead of pick-and-roll action and Doncic responded with 42 points and 69.8 DKFP. The usage rate was 38.6% after being 35.9%. He’s a threat to triple-double on any given night and has the highest floor/ceiling on the slate. He’s the highest-priced player by a wide margin, though. With Dallas neutralizing opposing offenses at home, that elevates Doncic somewhat.

Jalen Brunson ($12,600) – Brunson put up 48.8 DKFP in Game 2 after being held to 26.5 in the first game of the series. He was getting great looks in Game 1 but just couldn’t knock them down. It was a different story last game. Brunson is the Robin to Luka’s Batman and has garnered a usage rate of 25.7% and 29.5% in this series. I do like the Mavericks to control the pace in this one, as they played at the slowest pace during the regular season. Brunson is able to bully the smaller Warriors guards down in the post and I’d expect plenty of that action in Game 3.

FLEX Plays

Andrew Wiggins ($8,000) – Wiggins has been, dare I say, one of the more consistent players for Golden State? What a time to be alive. He’s scored 34.8, 34.3 and 41.8 DKFP over the past three games. In these playoffs, he’s contributed at least 30 DKFP in eight of 13 games. The usage rate will rarely be sky-high, as that flows to Curry, Thompson and Poole. That said, he’s attempted 14, 17 and 16 shots over the past three games and has contributed with some rebounds and assists. What has allowed him to produce a relatively high floor is the contributions in the defensive stats. He’s racked up at least one steal and one block in each of the past three games.

Value

Davis Bertans ($2,600) – Bertans won’t play 20 minutes. There’s a good chance he plays below 10. That said, when he’s on the floor, he’s hucking and chucking from downtown. In these playoffs, he’s scored double-digit DKFP in six games with a high of 21. Below $3,000, Bertans has the best chance to score double-digit DKFP and could exceed 20 if he gets hot.

fades

Kevon Looney ($7,200) – The ownership will likely be too high as Looney is coming off a 40.5-DKFP game. Three games ago, he also went for 40 DKFP. Those two games were outliers, though. Looney shot 10-for-14 last game and pulled down 22 rebounds in the other. For perspective, Looney has played 367 career games and has attempted at least 10 field goal attempts in five games. He’s grabbed double-digit rebounds in 34 career games.

Stephen Curry ($11,400) – I’m scared just writing Curry as a fade, especially since he can get spicy hot in any game. That said, I’m a believer in the Mavericks’ defense at home and their ability to control the pace. Curry is going to get his shots but many are from the perimeter so it’s within the range of outcomes that he goes cold. In addition, he’s pulled down eight, 12 and seven rebounds in the last three games. I don’t think that’s sustainable. In these playoffs, Curry has scored fewer than 40 DKFP four times.

The Outcome

After losing their opening game of the playoffs at home against Utah, the Mavericks have rolled off five straight wins in Dallas. The defense has been stifling at home and they should be able to control the pace. The Warriors should see their offense get mucked up a bit and I like how Dallas showed some adjustments in Game 2. They don’t want to go down 3-0 so I expect the Mavericks to come out like a band of Bezerkers.

Final score: Mavericks 105, Warriors 98

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $600K Shootaround [$150K to 1st] (GSW vs DAL)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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